Dunning check update: what is the probability of a fourth payment in 2021?

Rthere are rumors circulating online that a fourth dunning check valued at $ 15,000 is expected to be approved before the end of this year, but no official confirmation has yet been received, either from the federal or state government.

The federal unemployment premium ended in early September, but millions of people run out of food and behind on bills, and a fourth stimulus check would help.

Some states, including California, recognized the need for additional aid and provided additional payments, with economic indicators showing that, even as large sectors of the economy recover, the negative impact of the crisis persists Covid-19 pandemic.

Last March, a group of Democratic senators, including Ron Wyden from Oregon, Elizabeth warren from Massachusetts and Bernie sanders of Vermont, sent a letter to President Joe Biden requesting “recurring direct payments and automatic extensions of unemployment insurance linked to economic conditions.”

Other signatories included Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, the latter calling for a stimulus payment of $ 2,000 per month until the pandemic is over.

A May 17 letter from members of the House Ways and Means Committee renewed pressure for further stimulus.

“The $ 1,400 ARP checks alone will lift 11 million people out of poverty this year, with the extension of UI and other provisions of the bill accounting for the remaining five million. , according to the letter.

A fourth and fifth check could keep 12 million more people out of poverty. Combined with the effects of ARP, direct payments could reduce the number of poor in 2021 from 44 million to 16 million, he said.

A majority of Americans are also in favor of recurring relief payments. According to a Data for Progress survey conducted earlier this year, nearly two-thirds of respondents supported monthly payments of $ 2,000 to all Americans throughout the duration of the pandemic.

Supporters included a majority of Independent and Republicans.

However, there are green shoots that can be used as an argument against a fourth raise payout.

With number of vaccinations on the rise, the national economy continues to recover. More flexible restrictions have helped businesses and jobs are available in many industries. Many industries are even complaining of labor shortages, resulting in wage increases.

Consumer spending supplies two-thirds of the country’s economy. And the excessive savings from the pandemic, along with three stimulus checks, have boosted people’s purchasing power. This purchasing power has increased further since the start of monthly child tax credit payments on July 15.

Employment is picking up, but still below pre-pandemic levels

The unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in October as some workers found jobs or left the labor market, but job growth exceeded expectations for the first time in months.

The economy created about 530,000 jobs in October, above forecasts of 450,000, and well above the 194,000 new jobs created in September.

In the week ending Oct. 16, nearly 2.7 million Americans were receiving some form of unemployment assistance.

About half of all U.S. states have started trying to push people back into the workforce, with most Republican-led states ending the $ 300 federal unemployment benefit premium before Labor Day.


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Elaine R. Knight

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